<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(5) Houston (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) at (1) L.A. Lakers (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS)
After staving off elimination on Thursday, the Rockets now travel once again to the Staples Center in Los Angeles for a winner-take-all Game 7 against the Lakers with the victory advancing to the Western Conference finals against the Nuggets.
Since losing All-Star center Yao Ming to a broken foot in Game 3, the resilient Rockets are 2-1 SU and ATS in this series, including Thursday’s 95-80 home win, upsetting the Lakers as nine-point underdogs. Houston opened the game with a 17-1 run and never trailed, building a 27-15 lead at the end of one period. Houston, which shot 50.7 percent from the floor, was led by point guard Aaron Brooks’ 26 points, while forward Luis Scola added 24 points and 12 rebounds.
Los Angeles got 32 points from Kobe Bryant in Game 6, but the team shot just 35.7 percent from the floor. Only two other Lakers besides reached double figures in points as Los Angeles was held to its lowest point total in this postseason.
Houston has scored two playoff road wins, beating the Blazers in Game 1 of the opening round and then shocking the Lakers 100-92 in Game 1 of this series as an 8½-point underdog. However, in their last trip to Los Angeles for Game 5 on Tuesday, the Rockets got pummeled 118-78 and never threatened to cover as a 12-point road underdog. The Lakers are 5-1 SU at home in the postseason, but just 2-4 ATS.
Los Angeles is 7-3 (SU and ATS) in the 10 meetings this season with the Rockets with the favorite sitting at 7-4 ATS in the last 11 clashes. Inside Staples Center, the Lakers are on a 5-1 SU and ATS run against the Rockets. Finally, the straight-up winner has cashed in each of the last 12 head-to-head battles between these two.
Houston is on ATS slides of 2-5 following a spread-cover, 3-8 on the road against teams with a winning home record and 1-4 following a straight-up win, but Rick Adelman’s squad is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight after getting two days off and 6-2 ATS in its last eight Sunday contests. Meanwhile, the Lakers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight Sunday games, but otherwise they’re on ATS runs of 4-0 after a straight-up loss, 7-2 after getting two days off and 6-2 after a non-cover.
The under has been the play in four of the six clashes in this series, including the last three in a row, and six of the last eight battles between these rivals dating to the regular season have stayed low.
Houston is on several “under” runs, including 8-2 overall, 6-1 on Sundays, 5-2 as a playoff ‘dog and 11-5 on the road against teams with winning home marks. It’s also been all “unders” for the Lakers lately, including 7-2 overall, 11-5 at home, 23-9 as a favorite, 8-1-1 on Sundays, 14-2 after a straight-up loss and 13-4 at home against teams with a losing road record.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(3) Orlando (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) at (2) Boston (7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS)
The Magic make one final trek to TD Banknorth Garden in Boston for Game 7 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series against the Celtics, with the winner headed to Cleveland take on the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference finals.
Orlando used a suffocating defense to win Game 6 on Thursday at home, holding Boston to just 13 fourth-quarter points en route to a 83-75 victory, barely cashing as a seven-point favorite. Stan Van Gundy’s Magic shot just 36.6 percent from the floor and got outrebounded 48-42, but they executed down the stretch and forced 22 Celtics turnovers. Orlando big man Dwight Howard led the charge with 23 points and 22 rebounds while Rashard Lewis chipped in with 20 points.
Boston got 19 points and 16 rebounds from point guard Rajon Rondo on Thursday, but veteran Ray Allen was just 2-of-11 shooting for five points. Now the Celtics return to Boston where they are 17-3 SU all-time at home in Game 7s, including a 109-99 win as a 5½-point favorite to eliminate the Bulls in the opening round of these playoffs. Also, the Celtics are 32-0 in seven-game series after leading 3-2.
The Magic are 3-3 in road playoff games (2-4 ATS), including taking Game 1 from the Celtics in Boston 95-90 as a 1½-point pup. Orlando clinched its opening-round series against the Sixers on the road in Game 6, winning 114-89 as a 5½-point underdog. The Celtics are 5-2 inside the Garden this postseason (3-4 ATS), and they had to rally to beat the Magic in Game 5 in Boston, using a 17-3 run to close the game and edge Orlando 92-88 as two-point favorites.
The home team has won four of the last five in this series (SU and ATS) and the host is 25-11 ATS in the last 36 matchups between these two. Orlando has not had much luck in Boston, going 4-14 ATS in their last 18 visits. Lastly, the chalk is 4-1 ATS over the past five in this series.
The Magic are on ATS slides of 2-7 on the road, 1-4 when playing after two days off and 5-13 against Atlantic Division teams, but they are 36-17-3 in their last 56 as a ‘dog and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 when catching points on the road. Boston is on ATS slumps of 1-4-1 when getting two days off and 4-12 in conference semifinal action, but Doc Rivers’ club is on positive pointspread runs of 4-0 following a non-cover, 5-1 as a chalk of less than five points and 10-4 at home against teams with a winning road record.
The under has been the play in each of the last three meetings in this best-of-7 clash, four of the six series games and seven of the last nine between these two dating to the regular season. Orlando is also on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 21-8 overall, 10-4 on the road, 14-5 against Atlantic Division teams, 4-1 on Sunday and 6-2 as a road ‘dog. The Celtics have stayed below the total in five of their last six Sunday games and seven of their last 10 as a playoff favorite five points are less. Conversely, Boston carries “over” trends of 14-6 overall, 35-17-1 at home and 15-6 against Eastern Conference teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Milwaukee (22-14) at St. Louis (21-15)
The surging Brewers send left-hander Manny Parra (2-4, 4.82 ERA) to the mound against the Cardinals’ Todd Wellemeyer (3-3, 5.80) and this weekend series resumes at Busch Stadium, with both squads among a four-team logjam at the top of the N.L. Central Division.
After Friday’s game was postponed by rain, these rivals opened their first series of the season against each other on Saturday and Milwaukee rode a second-inning Corey Hart home run to a 1-0 victory. Four pitchers combined on the shutout for the Brewers, who are on an 18-5 tear in their last 23 games, winning the last four in a row and six of the last seven. Furthermore, Milwaukee, which now sits alone atop the N.L. Central standings, is on a 9-2 run in division play and has won eight of its last 10 road games.
St. Louis has now dropped five of its last seven games and is 1-5 in its last six against winning teams. Still, the Redbirds still sport positive streaks of 21-9 at Busch Stadium, 7-2 against left-handed starters and 5-0 facing southpaws at home.
Milwaukee has owned this rivalry lately, going 8-1 in the last nine clashes overall and 7-1 in its last eight games in St. Louis.
The Brewers came up empty in Parra’s first five starts of the season, with the lefty going 0-4 and posting a 5.33 ERA in the process, but Milwaukee has won in his last two outings –a 15-3 victory at Cincinnati on May 6 and a 6-3 home win over Florida on Tuesday. Parra is 1-3 with a 6.05 ERA in four road starts this season, and the Brew Crew is on slides of 2-9 in his last 11 outings overall and 1-7 in his last eight road appearances.
Wellemeyer got torched for seven runs (all earned) in just 4 1/3 innings in his last outing, Tuesday’s 7-1 setback at Pittsburgh, and he’s allowed four or more in runs in four of his seven starts this season. The 30-year-old is 1-2 with a 6.55 ERA in four home efforts, and St. Louis is 1-7 in the right-hander’s last eight home starts against winning teams and 0-5 in his last five Sunday outings.
In six career appearances (five starts) against St. Louis, Parra has yet to get a decision, going 0-0 with a 3.77 ERA. Wellemeyer is 0-2 with a 5.88 ERA in 10 career appearances (three starts) against Milwaukee.
The over for Milwaukee is on rolls of 7-4 overall, 4-1 on the highway and 4-1-2 behind Parra on the road. On the flip side, the under for St. Louis is on stretches of 12-3-1 at home against winning teams and 6-2-1 against lefty starters, and with Wellemeyer taking the ball, the under is on runs of 9-4 overall, 4-0 against winning teams and 6-1 on Sunday.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings overall and 6-1-1 in the last seven contests in St. Louis.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (18-17) at Texas (22-14)
Scott Feldman (2-0, 4.85 ERA) leads the red-hot Rangers as they wrap up a three-game series at Rangers Ballpark against the A.L. West rival Angels, who will start right-hander Jared Weaver (3-1, 2.45).
Texas, coming off a 10-8 win in Friday’s opener, eked out a 5-3 victory over Los Angeles on Saturday to extend its winning streak to six in a row. The Rangers have won 12 of their last 14 overall and they’re on additional rolls of 7-0 at home, 9-1 against right-handed starters and 8-1 in divisional contests.
Despite losing the first two games of this series, Los Angeles remains on a 9-4 overall run, and the Halos are on additional upswings of 6-3 against winning teams and 20-8 on Sunday. However, they’ve now dropped seven of their last nine games on the highway against teams with a winning record.
The Angels are still 8-5 in the last 13 clashes in this rivalry, including 4-2 in Texas.
Feldman has racked up five no-decisions among his seven starts this season, but he’s been solid in his last two stints, allowing three earned runs over 12 1/3 innings (2.19 ERA). On Tuesday against Seattle, Feldman yielded just one run on four hits in six innings, getting a no-decision in a 7-1 home victory. He’s got a 5.82 ERA in four home appearances (two starts) this season. Texas is 4-1 in the right-hander’s last five outings, but prior to Tuesday’s win over Seattle, it has lost seven consecutive Feldman starts at home.
Weaver is 2-0 with three no-decisions in his last five starts. The 26-year-old is coming off a strong effort Tuesday against the Red Sox, allowing one run on four hits in seven innings, but he got little offensive support as Los Angeles blew a 3-1, eighth-inning lead and lost 4-3 at home. Weaver is 0-1 with an inflated 6.55 ERA in two road starts, and the Angels are 0-4 in his last four outings on the highway dating to last season. However, the Halos have won Weaver’s last four Sunday stints.
Feldman is 1-3 with a 6.39 ERA in 13 career appearances (four starts) against Los Angeles, while Weaver is 2-1 with a 2.54 ERA in nine career starts against Texas, including 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA in four starts at Rangers Ballpark.
The under for Texas is on rolls of 6-2 overall, 7-3-1 on Sunday and 21-8 behind Feldman (including 5-1 at home), and the under for Los Angeles is on streaks of 7-2 overall, 5-0 on the road against winning teams and 4-1 with Weaver starting. In addition, the total has stayed low in five of Weaver’s last six starts against the Rangers (5-0-1), and all four of Weaver’s starts in Texas have played to the under.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext vAlign=bottom width="85%"><TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=smalltext width="100%" colSpan=2></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- / message --> <!-- / message -->
